Global Fund Replenishment 8 Scenarios
Ahead of the Global Fund's 8th Replenishment, use this scenario builder to understand how potential donor pledges could impact the funds available for health programs in Grant Cycle 8.
Donor Pledge Scenarios
Use the text input fields to create custom scenarios for the 8th Replenishment by adjusting donor pledges for Replenishment 8. Note that due to changes in currency exchange rates since 2022, flat funding relative to the 7th Replenishment will result in changes in the total pledge in USD equivalents.
| Donor | Replenishment 7 | Replenishment 8 | % Change (Adjusted USD) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Pledge | Set-Aside 1 | Total Pledge | Adjusted Pledge | Set-Aside | Total Pledge | ||
| Total | |||||||
1 Set-asides are from Aidspan and do not include Germany’s BACKUP Initiative, which is on top of the German pledge.
2 For R7, currency exchange rates are taken from the currency exchange rates at the time of the Replenishment Conference. For R8, exchange rates are taken from [whatever API we end up using?].
Sources of Funds
In the scenario of a replenishment, this chart displays the potential adjustments that could be made to the pledge, the amount set aside for bilateral donor support and for catalytic investments, and the final total amount available for country allocations.
1 Adjustments to United States pledge due to unmet matching requirements.
2 Includes adjustments for pledges received as complementary restricted financial contributions and risk of non-payment. Values are carried forward from R7 Sources of Funds (GF/B48/03 A Revision 1).
3 Amount carried forward from R7 Sources of Funds (GF/B48/03 A Revision 1)
4 Catalytic Investments will still be necessary should sources of funds for allocation for GC8 be less than US$ 12.26 billion. The Secretariat will make a recommendation on these amounts to the Board in such a scenario.
Global Disease Split
In the scenario of a replenishment, this chart displays how this replenishment scenario would impact disease split.
| Component | Grant Cycle 7 (2023-2025) |
Grant Cycle 8 (2026-2028)1 |
% Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total |
1 Based on the methodology approved in GF/B52/08B, maintains GC7 split up to and including US$ 12.0B, applies a split of 40% for HIV, 25% for TB, and 35% for malaria when the available funds for country allocation are US$ 17.0B and above, and applies a linear interpolation in scenarios between US$ 12.0B and 17.0B.
Catalytic Investments
| Priority | Components | Less than US$ 12.26b | US$ 12.26-US$ 13.2b | US$ 13.2-US$ 14.2b | US$ 14.2-US$ 15.2b | $15.2b and above |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NextGen Market Shaping & Response | Accelerate innovation and scaled use of products | Amounts to be recommended 1 | 100 | 120 | 175 | 234 |
| Promote sustainable regional manufacturing ecosystems | 10 | 15 | 50 | 60 | ||
| Environmentally sustainable supply, delivery & distribution | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | ||
| Emergency Fund | 20 | 20 | 40 | 40 | ||
| Address Human Rights and Gender Barriers | 40 | 70 | 90 | 100 | ||
| Build Community Networks & Engagement | 20 | 50 | 70 | 90 | ||
| Supporting Sustainability and Transition from Global Fund Financing | Responsible preparation for sustainabity and transition to maintain progress against HTM, including across borders | 20 | 40 | 45 | 45 | |
| Blended Finance | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||
| Public Financial Management | 0 | 10 | 25 | 30 | ||
| Optimizing RSSH | Reinforcing impact of focused, integrated RSSH-PPR investments in HRH/CHWs, surveillance and lab | 50 | 50 | 50 | 75 | |
| Improved HTM outcomes through integration with reproductive, maternal, newborn and STI services | ||||||
| Climate and Health *differentiated priority per GC7 mid-cycle investment | 0 | 10 | 40 | 110 | ||
| TOTAL (millions USD) | 260M | 400M | 600M | 800M | ||
1 Catalytic investments will still be necessary should sources of funds for allocation for GC8 be less than US$ 12.26 billion. The Secretariat will make a recommendation on these amounts to the Board in such a scenario.
Country Allocations
In the scenario of a XXX% replenishment
1 Source of scenarios: GF/B52/08B. Above, between, and below Board paper scenarios are linearly interpolated/extrapolated.
Overall resource needs and projected available resources for HIV, TB, and malaria
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1 Source of scenarios: GF/B52/08B. Above, between, and below Board paper scenarios are linearly interpolated/extrapolated.
Programmatic Results
In the scenario of a replenishment, this chart displays the potential changes to programmatic results.
1 {Note for Results Section}